In 2024, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that airline passenger numbers would surpass those of 2019. According to the Geneva-based airline trade organization, airlines will carry four billion passengers in 2024, rising 103 percent from 2019. Despite current airline industry difficulties, IATA predicts a positive outcome.
Passenger traffic is expected to improve steadily.
Overall traveler numbers in 2021 were 47 percent higher than in 2019, according to data from IATA’s 290 member airlines, which carry 83 percent of global air traffic. However, according to IATA, this figure will rise to 83 percent this year, 94 percent in 2023, and 103 percent in 2024.
“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from COVID-19 was not changed by the omicron variant. People want to travel,” says IATA’s CEO, Willie Walsh. “When travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic.”
However, not every market is made equal. IATA sees significant improvements in major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, bolstering the recovery foundation, while Asia-Pacific remains the global laggard, according to the organization. Passenger counts in North America will rebound to 94% of 2019 levels this year, with a full recovery projected in 2023 (102%) – much ahead of other areas. Despite the fact that the Canadian airline market is still struggling.
Impact of Russia – Ukraine conflict remains uncertain
However, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not factored into IATA’s recovery prediction. According to the trade organization, it is too early to predict immediate implications. IATA claims that air travel is resilient to shocks and that this disagreement will have little impact on the industry’s long-term growth. However, according to IATA, some damage is unavoidable, particularly for the airlines in that region.
“Sensitivity factors will include the geographic extent, severity, and time period for sanctions and/or airspace closures. These impacts would be felt most severely in Russia, Ukraine, and neighboring areas. Pre-COVID-19, Russia was the 11th largest market for air transport services in terms of passenger numbers, including its large domestic market. Ukraine ranked 48,” IATA advises.
“The impact on airline costs resulting from fluctuations in energy prices or rerouting to avoid Russian airspace could have broader implications. Consumer confidence and economic activity are likely to be impacted even outside of Eastern Europe.”
