The airline has been particularly badly struck by the almost two-year-old travel crisis due to COVID-19 pandemic, none more so than Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific. Cathay Pacific’s passenger capacity decreased by around 90% compared to their October 2019 passenger capacity rate.
Still…. low in numbers.
Cathay Pacific flew 76,430 passengers in October 2021. In comparison to October 2019, revenue passenger kilometers were down to 96.1% for October 2021. Their capacity, defined on available seat kilometers, remained down to 89.9% compared to their October 2019 frequency.
According to global travel data firm OAG, Cathay Pacific is offering 25,473 seats throughout its network for November this year, compared to their 110,515 seats in November 2019. Routes flown by the airline have decreased from 119 to 41.
Cathay Pacific Chief Customer and Commercial Officer Ronald Lam stated that travel demand has decreased in October compared to prior months.
In a statement, Lam said “Overall, we only managed to operate approximately 10% of our pre-pandemic passenger capacity compared to October 2019,”
“While our long-haul routes were less strong, our short-haul operations remained robust with demand for flights serving Asia remaining encouraging, in particular those serving the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam.”
5 more years for the airline to recover?
Cathay Pacific, according to John Grant, Chief Analyst at Midas Aviation, has a long road ahead of it. He told in a recent OAG webinar regarding the revival of aviation in Southeast Asia. Mr. Grant was gloomy about Hong Kong’s past status as a gateway city into China when asked about the present state of things.
“Whereas elsewhere we talk about a recovery in about two to three years, at worst, I can see it taking five years plus for Hong Kong to recover to previous levels of capacity,” Mr. Grant said. “By that time, what is left of Cathay Pacific?”
Mr. Grant described Hong Kong’s recent statement that it will follow Beijing’s lead and apply some of the world’s strictest quarantine rules as a concerning development for the city and its role as a gateway.
“A three-week quarantine in Hong Kong at the moment … it’s just impossible for travelers to plan and accept three weeks in a hotel,” he said. But Hong Kong and China may now point to the fast-evolving Omicron situation as an added reason for this tough stance.”
Will Cathay Pacific take off despite their current situation?
According to the Midas Aviation partner, one of the casualties of this policy stance is Hong Kong’s aviation and its flagship airline, Cathay Pacific. John Grant expresses “regret” for Cathay Pacific.
“While much of its gateway connectivity is into China, and that’s where it probably sees its future, I think it’s a big concern… They were in the middle of quite a large expansion plan. They were using their A350s to open new routes to the United States and Europe, and it’s all been blown away, and you can’t see it coming back quickly.
“To go from 119 routes, many of which were in China, down to 41 at this moment in time – that connectivity and that multiplier effect you get from various connections have been lost.” Grant said.
Cathay Pacific predicts a stronger second half than the first half of 2021, but warns that the year’s losses will be significant.
In a statement by Cathay Pacific, they said in a statement “Our operating environment continues to be one of considerable uncertainty.”
“Travel and operational restrictions continue to greatly impact our ability to mount flights, and we are still facing many challenges to both our passenger and our cargo business as the COVID-19 situation in different parts of the world continues to evolve.” They added.
Source:
Curran, A (29 November 2021) “A Long Road To Recovery For Cathay Pacific” https://simpleflying.com/slow-recovery-forecast-cathay-pacific/
